My Thoughts on the Trading Week Ahead: 6/3/24-6/7/24

Important macro data week will set the tone for the trading into the June FOMC meeting.

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Current Outlook

My outlook really has not changed much over the last couple of weeks. I think we are entering a crucial three-week period where the economic data is likely to still show reasonable underlying momentum which in a sticky inflation environment will force the Fed into a hawkish policy outlook when we get to the FOMC meeting in two weeks. While the impact of the long and variable lags of monetary policy are starting to bite more to various segments of the economy every day that time passes on, we still have enough strength in the labor market that will make it very difficult for the Fed to kick off a rate cutting cycle in 2024.