Soft QE, Hard Politics: Trump's Yield Curve Without a Compass

How the administration's revival of activist Treasury issuance risks reawakening inflation - with no credible anchor in sight.

The yield curve no longer tells the truth. Not because markets are wrong — but because policy is being bent into something it was never meant to be.

In recent weeks, the Trump administration has signaled that it is actively considering a revival of activist Treasury issuance — deliberately skewing debt sales toward short-term T-bills to suppress long-end yields and force borrowing costs lower.

But this isn’t just about the curve. It’s about controlling the perception of inflation, while sidestepping the tools required to fight it. And the proposed solution isn’t grounded in monetary or fiscal discipline — it’s rooted in political coercion.

Welcome to Activist Treasury 2.0: a yield suppression regime without a credible inflation anchor, relying instead on threats, messaging, and macro theater.