Weaponized Scarcity: Rare Earths, Supply Chain Deterrence, and the New Geopolitical Gameboard

Executive Summary

Rare earth elements (REEs) are the invisible gears of modern civilization—essential to everything from electric vehicles to missile guidance systems. China’s near-total dominance over rare earth processing has evolved from a market quirk into a geopolitical weapon. Yet beyond narratives of vulnerability, a deeper strategic reality is emerging: rare earths are becoming tools of strategic deterrence.

China doesn’t need to declare war. It can simply choke the materials required to sustain one.

This memo introduces a new framework—supply chain deterrence—to describe how rare earth dependence limits escalation in global conflicts, balances asymmetric trade pressure, and gives Beijing leverage without bullets. It also outlines what the United States can do to rebuild resilience—and where investors should position to capture the next wave of resource-driven geopolitical realignment.