Why I Write on Substack
Because most market commentary is either too slow, too noisy, or too shallow. I’m building something different — for people who need signal, not spin.
🧭 Why I Write These Memos and Who They’re For
There are a lot of voices out there.
Some are loud.
Some are fast.
Some are just selling hopium in a trade room.
Others are locked behind paywalls that feel more like payback for wasting your time.
This isn’t that.
I write these memos because the people I care about serving don’t have time to be glued to the screens all day but they also can’t afford to be caught flat-footed when macro shifts hit hard.
👀 Eyes and Ears When It Matters
I manage my own capital and actively trade throughout the day. That means I’m not writing from the sidelines. I’m in it, watching the tape, tracking flows, listening to the tone shift in Fed speak, client chatter, and the bond market’s body language.
But I’m not just here to react. I’m here to distill.
Most of my readers (family offices, advisors, allocators) don’t want to be in the weeds every minute. They want signal, not noise. They want the 1–2 things that matter right now, why they matter, and how to think about them.
That’s the job I try to do with every memo I send.
✍️ What You’ll Find Here
This isn’t a newsletter that regurgitates headlines. It’s a synthesis engine.
Each week, I typically publish:
A longer-form memo on a major structural force reshaping the economy (Fed policy, AI labor displacement, housing monetization, the new fiscal regime)
Intraday notes when markets move fast and the headlines miss the bigger picture
No fluff. No filler. Just sharp context, actionable framing, and real market feel.
If you run money or advise those who do, and you want someone with a steady pulse on the shifting macro terrain, you’re in the right place.
🧠 Thinking in Time, Not Just in Price
I care about more than what moved today. I care about why it moved and what comes next.
Many of the best trades begin as misunderstood macro narratives. My edge is catching those pivots early.
When AI hits the labor market, it shows up first in WARN notices - not NFP.
When the Fed loses control, the proof is in the Treasury curve - not the press conference.
When the housing market breaks, it’s not prices that fall first - it’s the illusion of safety.
These are the kinds of asymmetries I’m tracking. That’s what you’ll get here.
🔓 Want More?
This is the top layer.
Below the surface, I run the Discord Room at the Bear Traps Report for readers who want real-time insight during the trading day. That’s where I post live reactions, working theories, chart setups, and occasionally yell into the void when Powell says something ridiculous.
You’re not just paying for content. You’re paying for access.
The posts on X are free because they have to be; they’re broadcast. They’re the tip of the iceberg: useful, yes, but incomplete. The deeper, more nuanced thinking happens here and even more so inside the Discord.
I’ve spent over 20 years on the buyside, managing risk, trading real capital, and navigating markets for hedge funds and institutions.
This isn’t theory. It’s lived experience. What I share in the Discord is the real-time flow of how I think through uncertainty, and how I act on it.
If you want a direct line to that process as it’s happening that’s what the paid tier is for. Please reach out directly to me in DM for more information on that.
🧩 The Invitation
If you’ve ever thought:
“I know what’s happening in markets - but I want someone smart and calm who can help me see what’s really going on…”
Then this page is for you.
Stick around.
Read the memos.
Ask questions.
And when you’re ready - join the conversation inside.
This is a paid service because you’re getting something scarce: access, time, and decision-making context shaped by two decades of professional investing.
You don’t need another content dump. You need someone who’s live, thinking, and already looking around the corner.
Because macro is getting harder.
You don’t need another hot take.
You need a better radar.
Let me be that.
- Craig
Important Disclaimer: This website is for educational purposes only. The Bear Traps Report, 3-Circle Investments and its authors are not financial advisors and nothing posted should be considered investment advice. The securities discussed are considered highly risky so do your own due diligence