3-Circle Investments by The Bear Traps Report

3-Circle Investments by The Bear Traps Report

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China Just Outmaneuvered the U.S. — Again
Rare earths for AI chips: how Beijing turned the trade war into a quiet win
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Craig Shapiro
Why I Write on Substack
Because most market commentary is either too slow, too noisy, or too shallow. I’m building something different — for people who need signal, not spin.
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Craig Shapiro
The Illusion of Strength: How AI, the Fed, and the K-Shaped Economy Are Leaving America Behind
I.
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Craig Shapiro
The Boss Economy: How Trump Is Enforcing Inflation Discipline Through Power, Fear, and Favor
Trump isn’t fighting inflation with conventional policy.
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Craig Shapiro
The Federal Reserve’s Quiet Surrender: Jerome Powell and the New Mandate of Capital
What if the Federal Reserve no longer served the public?
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Craig Shapiro
1
The Great Transfer: How Bitcoin Will Demonize—and Then Demonetize—U.S. Housing
I.
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Craig Shapiro
Weaponized Scarcity: Rare Earths, Supply Chain Deterrence, and the New Geopolitical Gameboard
Executive Summary
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Craig Shapiro
Soft QE, Hard Politics: Trump's Yield Curve Without a Compass
How the administration's revival of activist Treasury issuance risks reawakening inflation - with no credible anchor in sight.
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Craig Shapiro
Soft QE, Hard Politics: Trump's Yield Curve Without a Compass
How the administration’s revival of activist Treasury issuance risks reawakening inflation — with no credible anchor in sight.
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Craig Shapiro

June 2025

The Hidden Easing: Why the Treasury’s T-Bill Pivot Is Quietly Inflationary
What looks like fiscal prudence may actually be stealth monetary fuel—and the dollar could pay the price.
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Craig Shapiro
The Great Housing Reset: Why unwinding the housing bubble could be the best thing for America
For decades, owning a home has been the cornerstone of the American Dream.
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Craig Shapiro
2
Deflation by Design: Washington’s Quiet Doctrine That Could Reshape Markets
Something big is happening in markets—and it’s not being announced in press conferences or Fed statements.
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Craig Shapiro
© 2025 Craig Shapiro
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